The Unknown is Not Uncertain

The robotization of professional services. The introduction of blockchain thinking to more and more industries. Access to truly Big Data. The colonization of Space. Life after streaming music. The significant extension of human life-spans. What happens next?

In each case, we know that some reasonable realization of each of these phenomena will undoubtedly take place in the not-too-distant future, but we have no idea of what it will eventually look like, nor what the economic, technological or societal implications might be. This is the unknown! It is hard to even think about such things, much less make judicious managerial decisions regarding them. READ MORE on

The Birth Of A Really Bad Idea: Peter Thiel And Knowing Less As A Life Strategy

Amundsen’s success in the race to the Pole symbolizes the power of both learning before doing, as well as learning from diverse sources. The importance of  these success factors came to mind when I read about the initiative of PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel to encourage bright young people to drop-out of university so that they can get right to work as entrepreneur-aspirants. Thiel is offering $100,000 apiece to 20 or so carefully selected young people in an effort to create more innovation by sponoring their pursuit of an entrepreneurial idea in Silicon Valley instead of going to college. The underlying message, apparently, is that knowing more about the world, and thousands of years of accumulated hunman knowledge, is no longer an advantage. Read the entire article on

Air Cover: Innovation's Secret Ingredient

Among the leadership traits which have made Steve Jobs so effective as an innovator has been the ability to create an inspiring vision for talented people to work towards and then get out of their way so that they could make full-use of their talents in pursuit of this vision. While he has always been associated with strong “top-down” leadership, much of it has been applied in the service of releasing innovative energies found towards the “bottom” of the organization. He was able to use his position of power within Apple to both energize innovation project teams, set them loose, and then, if necessary, protect them. The result was often that most magical of innovation outcomes, when the assembled talent believes that they have absolute freedom to apply their energies and skills, while senior management believes that it is in complete control; both at the same time! Jobs did this, with varying degrees of self-restraint in his involvement, with the Lisa, Macintosh and iPod projects, at least, and in each case not only changed the technical worlds of which they were a part, but also launched the careers of the next generation of innovation leaders in the industry. This partnering between a visionary senior executive, and a sort of renegade band of innovators, is not a new phenomenon, but while powerful, is often invisible,  and frequently a “secret ingredient,” for those organizations savvy enough to support it, in the realization of successful innovation.

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The Future Of Innovation Will Be Different

The future of innovation will be more important then ever, but most likely quite different from what we have thought of as “normal” innovation in the past. More important because as global population grows, available resources shrink, the environment worsens, and the business environment becomes more complex, we’ll need more innovation than ever to move human prospects forward.
We start with the sobering realization that the global economy is much more complex than any competitive terrain that we’ve innovated on before. In addition, the pace of change appears to be accelerating, as well. All in all, innovation will be more essential in the future, than it has ever been in the past, and at the same time, more challenging to do well!
The very nature of how we innovate will change. The old (and often misleading) stereotype of the single individual, or even small team, will fade as multi-site, multi-organizational, and multi-cultural collaboration becomes the norm. This will result in truly global approaches to idea-sharing, shaping and ownership that goes well beyond what we have mastered in the past.
We must recognize that few firms are prepared for this. They often lack the appropriate mindset, sufficient competencies, and even access to the necessary ideas, that this new innovation approach requires. Yet, if they limit their innovation activities to the confines of their own organization, they are condemned to under-achieve. Increasingly, we will be seeing that the potentials and weaknesses of our value-chains are as important as our own competencies, and building innovation partnerships up and down the value-chain will become an imperative. This, then, will require coordinating other peoples’ innovative assets, in a way that is more challenging than merely managing one’s own commercialization funnel.
We must build organizational “cultures” that treat ideas as the raw materials for building an organization’s future. That means idea-work must be recognized as a legitimate, and vital, part of what we’re all doing. It also means that the right attitudes are necessary, if we’re going to take knowledge and innovation seriously; and that processes need to be in place to assure that we are getting enough good ideas into the firm, and moving them to the right people in order to add value and bring about commercialization. We need to measure how much smarter we are as an organization, from year to year, and think about what investments need to be made to raise our return on brains.
Leadership must also change. The ideal is “smart people leading smarter people,” and the role models for this are those virtuoso performers who have inspired others to work beyond their normal aspirations. This is leadership as a contact sport, but the goal is for the knowledge workers to believe that they are working in absolute freedom, while leadership believes that it retains complete control.

Originailly written for "The Future of Innovation" project, 2009


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